Birth seasonality trends across India

In this weekly series we present birth seasonality trends across India, as revealed by the Health Management Information System (HMIS) data released by Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. We examine the monthly trends in data, between FY18-FY20. The data has been tested for its consistency across three years and the data is found to be reasonably consistent across states, and for rural and urban areas as well.

The trends revealed at the all-India level, as expected, mask considerable inter-state differences. We present results of different state groups based on the similarities in their trends.

The immediate implications of these findings are the pivoting of family planning program in accordance with the patterns observed. The months which see higher number of births also necessitate greater preparedness of the physical infrastructure for the higher case load and ensuring adequate supply of immunisation and other child care services.

The three-year trend in live births at the all-India level reveal that births consistently rise above the mean in time period of July-December and then fall below it right after (See Figure 2).

Figure 1. Seasonal Trends in Live Births in India (in Absolute terms) Source: HMIS (FY18 - FY20)
Figure 2. Seasonal Trends in Live Births in India (Deviation from Mean) Source: HMIS (FY18 - FY20)

With respect to states of Punjab and Haryana, we see the peak of births during August and September and a consistent dip in the months of February and March. This pattern is visible in plains of agrarian states (Figure 3 to Figure 6). 

Figure 3. Seasonal Trends in Live Births in Haryana (in Absolute terms) Source: HMIS (FY18 - FY20)
Figure 4. Seasonal Trends in Live Births in Haryana (Deviation from Mean) Source: HMIS (FY18 - FY20)
Figure 5. Seasonal Trends in Live Births in Punjab (in Absolute terms) Source: HMIS (FY18 - FY20)
Figure 6. Seasonal Trends in Live Births in Punjab (Deviation from Mean) Source: HMIS (FY18 - FY20)

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The images uploaded on this website, if found reproduced elsewhere, without appropriate acknowledgement and citation are liable for legal action.

Please use this citation for reproducing these images elsewhere:

Nambiar et al (Forthcoming) – “Seasonal variations in births in India”

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